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JPMorgan
2026-08-05 02:03:11

JPMorgan survey shows buy-side estimates for chip names running above company guidance, with ON at the center of the debate

A JPMorgan buy-side survey dated Aug. 3 points to a gap between weak price action in semiconductor stocks and still-firm earnings expectations heading into results. The most closely watched name is ON Semiconductor, where investors remain sharply split over the SYNA deal. Some see the transaction as dilutive to the high-voltage data center narrative and at odds with prior management messaging around exiting non-core operations. Even so, positioning has shifted over the past month, with new longs and short covering increasing as ON moved from net short to slightly net short after roughly a 25% share-price pullback. Survey responses cited by TechFlowPost show buy-side estimates for ON’s second-quarter revenue, gross margin, EPS, third-quarter outlook and fiscal 2027 EPS all above company guidance. About 60% of respondents also expect ON to modestly raise its 2026 AI revenue target from the current roughly $500 million level, though expectations remain low. JPMorgan published similar survey results for Applied Materials, AMD, Arista, Coherent, Cisco, Lumentum, Sandisk and Western Digital. Across most of those names, average buy-side forecasts for revenue, gross margin and earnings per share came in above management guidance. The report’s central message is that investor earnings expectations across the semiconductor group remain stronger than the recent selloff might suggest.

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JPMorgan survey shows buy-side estimates for chip names running above company guidance, with ON at the center of the debate
analog chips
2026-08-04 10:04:07

Analog Chipmakers Show Broader Recovery as Inventories Normalize and AI Demand Adds Support

A recovery is taking shape across the analog semiconductor market, with ON Semiconductor, Texas Instruments, STMicroelectronics and NXP Semiconductors all reporting year-over-year and sequential revenue growth, while third-quarter guidance also pointed to further sequential gains. The rebound is no longer tied to a single end market. Industrial demand moved first, data center demand followed, and automotive improved visibly in the second quarter. Inventory metrics shifted at the same time: STMicroelectronics said its book-to-bill ratio was close to 2, NXP’s channel inventory fell back to 11 weeks, and Texas Instruments reported rising backlog with lead times extending by several weeks from a level below 13 weeks. Management commentary across the group suggested the analog market had moved from a long destocking phase toward normalization, with new orders beginning to flow again. The report also shows the upcycle is uneven. Some categories, including automotive analog, power management, AI server power chains, optical module analog front ends and certain sensors, are tightening. General-purpose parts, consumer electronics and parts of the power and discrete segment still face pricing pressure. AI is becoming a more important growth driver as data center power conversion, thermal management, optical connectivity and industrial or automotive applications increase the content value of analog chips. Even so, forecasts cited in the report indicate analog is improving rather than leading the broader semiconductor boom, which is still being driven much more sharply by memory.

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Analog Chipmakers Show Broader Recovery as Inventories Normalize and AI Demand Adds Support
ON Semiconductor to buy Synaptics in roughly $7 billion all-stock deal